December 11, 2024
Black Friday is historically one of the biggest retail and ecommerce events of the year.
This year, Black Friday fell on payday for many. As a result, most experts predicted that this year’s event would be bigger and better than ever before.
Before the big day, we made a few of our own Black Friday predictions based on industry forecasts and data from previous years. Now that the biggest sale of the year has come and gone, let’s take a look at whether or not our predictions were correct and what the overall outcome for this year’s Black Friday sales were.
Our prediction: browsing on mobile but converting on desktop will be common.
People often favour making a purchase on a desktop device, particularly when they’re buying an expensive item. We anticipated that this trend would continue into the Black Friday sales and more people would convert on desktop than on mobile.
Overall, mobile spending was higher than in previous years, with $69.8 billion being spent on mobile over the holiday season (1 November-2 December). However, desktop did overtake mobile conversions on Black Friday, as expected. According to Adobe Analytics, conversion rates on desktop were 6.5%, whilst mobile conversions came in at just 3.3%.
Our prediction: social media will be more influential than ever.
Social media is a prevalent part of our society and consumers can be heavily influenced by what they see on these platforms. As a result, we expected social media to have a significant impact on Black Friday sales this year.
As yet, there isn’t any reliable data on social media spending during Black Friday. So, whether our prediction was right or not is undetermined. However, it is interesting to note that according to Adobe Analytics, makeup and skincare was one of the top selling products on Black Friday, and in the UK alone, 27% of people say they have purchased beauty and skin care on social media.
So, whilst we can’t say for certain that social media had a particularly large influence on Black Friday, it’s fair to say it most likely had some impact on sales.
Our prediction: there will be a slight increase in spending compared to previous years.
We predicted that spending would be higher this year due to Black Friday landing on the last Friday of November - which is payday for a considerable amount of people.
Our forecast on spending was correct. This year, the UK spent £120 million on Black Friday, compared to £104 million in 2023. Across the globe, online Black Friday 2024 sales amounted to $10.8 billion, $1 billion more than the previous year.
Our prediction: we’ll see a rise in BNPL use.
BNPL has become increasingly popular across the world as a means for people to spread the cost of goods. We anticipated that its widespread use would intensify during the Black Friday sales.
As expected, BNPL use did surge. In London alone, BNPL reached £28.5 million, an increase in £4.2 billion from 2023. For the whole of the UK, BNPL spending on Black Friday came in at £117.2 million, a significant increase from the £101.4 million spent in 2023. BNPL spending across the world hit an incredible $18.5 billion this holiday season, almost $2 billion more than 2023 ($16.6 billion).
Overall, Black Friday 2024 was a success for many online stores. Most of our theories were correct, as this year saw a higher conversion rate on desktop than mobile, a rise in BNPL use, and a higher total spend.
Were you hoping for more from Black Friday this year? Well, if you’d like help managing your digital presence, get in touch with our experts today.
